It’s nice to receive validation, especially from folks at the Madison Project who I believe cross over into RealClearPolitics and RedState. The Madison Project has scored the last Congress on conservative votes, and then compared that to the conservativeness of their respective district. In looking at their “Hall of Shame,” we can see which Representatives should be voting more conservatively than they currently are. Many of the greatest offenders come from weaker Republicans in strong GOP districts in the South, although there are many strong GOP districts across the country. (“Hall of Fame” kudos to Jim Jordan, and also to Steve Chabot who didn’t make the cut but is fighting the good fight.)
Most of Ohio’s Republican districts would be considered leaning or swing, and they include the four who I’ve previously tagged as weak or vulnerable. Both Steve Stivers (OH-15) and Pat Tiberi (OH-12) were redistricted away from central Columbus into areas which should be more Republican. These two are ripe for GOP primaries. (The Madison Project has Tiberi in a D+1 district, but I think that is the old district and not the new one.) These two do NOT show up in Cook’s current Race Ratings and any Republican should be a winner, so why not challenge these two and get somebody in Congress more conservative?
The other two might be a little more tricky. David Joyce (OH-14) (replacing Steve LaTourette, and who seems to have a similar temperament although we’ll wait for more data) and Jim Renacci (OH-16) are in districts that are slightly more Democrat-leaning than the 2002 map. LaTourette had earned respect from his district and Republican challenges weren’t done and Democrat challenges fell flat. If Joyce were to lose a primary to a more conservative candidate, the national Democrats will throw everything at this district because it is certainly winnable for them. Ashtabula County has always leaned Democrat, and this district now includes more parts of Summit County which is certainly more Democrat.
Renacci’s district now includes the southwestern parts of Cuyahoga as well as parts of Medina County which are swing areas. His district may be a bit more conservative than Joyce’s, but Democrats are pretty active and will likely have a high-profile candidate run on their side. A primary generally hurts the incumbent, and it would be a struggle for either Renacci or the challenger to follow up with a November win. It doesn’t mean somebody won’t try, and maybe Cook sees something that I don’t. Like Stivers and Tiberi, Renacci is NOT listed as a vulnerable seat.
Moving to the Cook Report, there are two other seats that he has as “likely Republican.” Bob Gibbs has a completely new district and people in the rural north are generally more Democrat than the rural central. Bill Johnson’s district travels the southeast edge of the state bordering Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The Appalachian areas are becoming more Republican and I think Gibbs is the more vulnerable of the two.
The big race in 2014 in Ohio will be for Governor. Active Tea Party members are upset at the Medicaid expansion proposed by Kasich, and may consider a challenge in a primary. I would be very concerned if they choose to challenge in the general, however, as a third party. Kasich barely won in the big year of 2010, and if he loses just 5% to a third party then that might get a Democrat back in the statehouse.
Next year’s summer and fall should be all about getting out the conservative vote, but the winter and spring better be about getting a conservative candidate. I hope conservatives are considering challenges at least to Stivers and Tiberi (and throw in Boehner), and we can push the next House even further to the right. Gowdy, Amash, Chaffez, Brindenside, Gohmert, and Jim Jordan need all the help they can get.
July 12, 2013
Categories: House . Tags: Gibbs, Johnson, Joyce, LaTourette, Renacci, Stivers, Tiberi . Author: returnohiored . Comments: Leave a comment