Specter D-PA: Now Republicans Can Win the Northeast

One of the most frustrating things about arguing for the Republican cause, has been the “what about” comebacks. Republicans are for less spending – “What about the Hastert House?” Republicans are for free market – “What about Bush’s Treasury Department?” Republicans are… whatever – “What about Specter?”

With Specter, Collins & Snowe, Whitman, and in some ways Voinovich & DeWine, the Senate has had very moderate and sometimes liberal senators from the Northeast. With the loss of Chris Shays in the House, there are now zero northeastern Representatives. The argument that Steve Shmidt (McCain campaign strategist) makes is that Republicans need to become more tolerant of abortion, gay marriage, and environmental control of business in order to win back the Northeast. No way!

Like McCain, Shays, and DeWine, we loose every time a liberal Republican takes on a liberal Democrat. By moving to the left to attract the “moderates,” we’ve let the Democrats take their party to the left. Sure, they’ll talk conservative – more people thought their taxes would be lower under Obama than under McCain – but once in power the Democrats are nothing more than government-control liberals. And when liberals who want government control are actually in control of government, you get the situation we have now.

So now Toomey has more oxygen with which to argue the conservative cause, and that’s the argument we need to have. A conservative government has not been tried since the eighties. A true free market approach to health care hasn’t been tried since the fifties. We need to embrace the conservative argument, not shy away from it. We need to illustrate the cruelty of liberal policies, not explain it away. we need to turn squishy moderates into conservatives.

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Colorado Polls: Sign of Things to Come?

Redstate has a post (Is Colorado Souring on Obama?) that exemplifies why I started this blog.  Colorado is a state like Ohio that switched from Red to Blue, and we need to switch it back beginning in 2010.  It’s also stunning that the generic Congressional polls are even right now – this type of poll almost always favors Democrats.

But in Colorado, the polls show that Obama’s favorability has fallen especially among the independent voters.  If there is enough disaffection with the President come the mid-term elections, and Democratic House member will need to decide how closely to associate themselves with Obama.  Can they latch on to the Messiah Obama while scolding the Socialist Obama?

The Cook Report has preliminary information on House districts that have the potential to tip.  It’s obviously way too early to look at, and these things are impossible to forcast right now, but we can do it anyway.

Of the Ohio House seats that could flip D to R, he lists Driehuas-1 as the most likely, followed by Kilroy-15, Boccieri-16, and Space-18 as the next most likely.  Not to keep our eyes of our defense, Schmidt-2 and Tiberi-12 are listed as our weakest Republican seats.  But again, this affirms where I think Republican gains can most easily be made: Cincinatti, Columbus, and the rural areas in the central-east.

Finally, the Cook Report has Space as a potential retirement.  Earlier this year, I heard his name along with Tim Ryan as potential Senate candidates but this doesn’t seem to be in the cards for 2010.  Lt. Gov. Lee Fischer and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner may be sucking the oxygen (and money) from any other Democratic candiate.  I have heard the rumor that Tim Ryan may be tapped to run as Lt. Gov with Ted Strickland, so that is something to keep our eyes on.

I also await Ohio polls regarding Obama’s approval, and then I’m sure preliminary Senate and Governor polls as well.  I hope our independent voters have similar misgivings about the sharp left turn their “moderate candidate” has taken since being in office.

2008 County Election Map

Update November 2012.  I see this page is getting alot of Google Image hits.  Great!  Thanks for coming!  I also encourage you to check the home page and browse through different and updated maps.  For county election info, check out:
https://returnohiored.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/ouch-the-day-after-ohio-catharsis/
https://returnohiored.wordpress.com/2012/11/11/ohio-county-trends/
or for the Ohio Congressional Districts
https://returnohiored.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/a-closer-look-at-ohio-districts-2/

Again, thanks for coming.

– Uncle Odie (follow me on Twitter)

In getting ready for 2010, we need to see how Ohio turned blue in 2008.   We can do this by first comparing the 2008 presidential election with that of 2004.  One of the best sites to study this is at http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html.  The “County Bubble” map shows to what degree Obama was strong in the cities with Franklin, Lucas, and then Cuyahoga and its surrounding counties giving him such a big margin.  Then you have the “Voting Shifts” map which show to what degree Obama gained over Kerry and where McCain actually gained over Bush.  Can anyone be surprised that the swath of Appalachia appears to have a good number of Kerry voters switching over to McCain.

2008 Ohio County Election MapTo this, I can add two more maps.  The first is the simple county win/loss map.

There were six counties that switched from Bush to Obama: Wood, Ottowa, and Sandusky in the Northwest, Lake in the Northeast, Tuscarawas in eastern Central, and Cincinatti’s Hamilton County.Secondly we have the difference in margin between 2004 and 2008.

Swing margins in each Ohio county

Swing margins in each Ohio county

This shows that there was a big swing toward Obama in the entire Northwest of the state.  Obama’s natural strength in Chicago leeched over into a strong showing in Gary, IN and I think we’re seeing just a bit of that here.  An Indiana border county like Van Wert (fourth up from the NW corner, approx 15,000 voters) is still strongly Republican, but the McCain margin of victory was only 63-35 while Bush carried the county 72-28.

On the other side of the state, Youngstown’s Trumbull County (approx 100,000 voters) went for Obama 60-38, down from the 62-38 Kerry victory.

The other deep blue switches occured in Cincinatti (Driehaus OH-1), Columbus and the two northern counties Deleware and Union (Kilroy OH-15 and Tibiri OH-12), and then the rural Tuscarawas and Holmes (Space OH-18).  Driehaus and Kilroy are freshman while Zach Space won in 2006 after Bob Ney resigned on his way to an 18-month prison term.  These three seats might be interesting to watch if there is a 2010 pop in the Obama bubble.

Tea Party Cleveland

Went to the Cleveland Tea Party with about 1500 other people at Mall C on a cool misty afternoon. The speakers were good, but the signs made the day. If anybody still hasn’t read Atlas Shrugged, they’re going to need to. There was a recurring theme of John Galt, Dagny Tagbert, and so on. And wasn’t it ironic that the very next day, Barack Obama touted high-speed rail as the transportation of the future. Could that possibly be a coincidence?

I hope the other tea parties went well in the big cities and small. In fact in hindsight, I wonder if the smaller tea parties wouldn’t have been better so you could meet people in your neighborhood who share our frustration with the government.

I think if we simply wait until 2012 to support whichever nominee Republicans have, then we would have waited way too long. We need to change the House. We need to change the Senate! We need to change our statehouse! And we can only do this by defeating Zach Space, John Boccieri, MaryJo Kilroy, and Steve Driehaus, and then putting up strong challenges to Tim Ryan, Marcy Kaptur, and even Dennis Kucinich. Then we need to get Rob Portman elected to the Seante, and Governor Kasich would be a big step forward for this state. Lets all keep informed and active in our areas to Return Ohio Red! Vote for Change 2010!