The website header now reflects Ohio’s new 16 districts, down from the previous 18. The image looks pretty red right now, and maybe I should change the website name to “Keep Ohio Red.” But this blog was started after the April 15, 2009 Tea Party rally when Ohio had 10 Democrat districts to 8 Republican ones. With a Republican collapse, the current 11-4-1 layout could see the Democrats holding 8 or 9 seats. But we won’t let that happen in 2012… right?
The only incumbent vs. incumbent competition for November is the purple OH-16 with three-term Democrat Betty Sutton against freshman Jim Renacci. While Sutton is familiar to people in the northern part of this district, Renacci is favored to win as he retained much of this original district to the south and west of Akron. In fact, the Democrat Red to Blue website does not list this district as one which is likely to beat a sitting Republican. Ohio has three out of the 64 districts where Democrats feel they might have a shot.
The district that might be the most competitive is OH-06 which I’ve called the Appalachia / Ohio River district. Ted Strickland, former Ohio Congressman and Governor is from this area and is actively involved with the Obama re-election campaign. Charlie Wilson replaced Strickland in Congress and joined the “Blue Dog” Democrat Coalition only to be defeated by Tea Party favorite Bill Johnson. Wilson is up for a rematch and this region will be very important for the presidential campaign as well. When Democrats take Ohio, they usually have large victories in the Cleveland area and then add support from voters at the eastern edge of the state.
Another district on the Red to Blue list is OH-07 represented by another freshman, Bob Gibbs. Gibbs saw his district change the most geographically as he moves from rural areas in the south to rural areas in the north. The swing counties of Stark and Tuscarawus are included in this district and the Democrats have pinned their hopes on businesswoman Joyce Healy-Abrams. Her brother is the current mayor of Canton, so the name recognition in the south plus the Democrat leanings of voters in the north might give her an extra edge against the favored incumbent.
Finally, a dark-horse district which may offer a surprise on election night is OH-10 in Dayton. This district was re-drawn as a Republican incumbent vs. incumbent match between Mike Turner and Steve Austria. Austria decided not to run for re-election making Mike Turner a clear favorite. But Montgomery County has consistently voted for the Democrat in presidential elections, and Obama actually one the area in this newly-drawn district. Sharon Neuhardt ran against Steve Austria in 2008, losing 58-42. Her second campaign should be more successful than the first, and Mike Turner might have to earn his way to a sixth term.
August 18, 2012
Categories: House . Tags: Austria, Gibbs, Healy-Abrams, Johnson, Neuhardt, Renacci, Sutton, Turner, Wilson . Author: returnohiored . Comments: Leave a comment