More Joe the Plumber Info

I neglected to add his campaign link to the previous post –

http://joeforcongress2012.com/
http://www.facebook.com/TheRealJoethePlumber

Also I have noticed him posting articles on Redstate and Breitbart about once a week, and here is his latest – http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/12/marcy-kaptur-thirty-years-of-failed-policies.

I am glad that he is not afraid to use the terms “socialist” and “marxist” in his writings as I they have appeared in my vocabulary more frequently over the least few years when describing Obama and the Democrat Party. If somebody complains, I just reply “it’s not a criticism, it’s a description” or “if he wants to not be called a marxist then he should stop following marxist policies.” Surprisingly, I have not had many people reject my language. I am generally a level-headed guy, a maybe friends decide that my extreme language is the result of extreme truths. Of all the McCain voters I know, every single one of them will vote for Mitt Romney. The Obama voters are not so well decided at this time, but I’ll be working hard on that for the next five months.

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Does Joe the Plumber Have A Shot?

Two things are true:

  1. Redistricting has made every district a “safe” district for the incumbent, which in this case is Marcy Kaptur.
  2. Of course I think that Joe the Plumber has a shot!

Marcy Kaptur has consistently received close to 75% of the vote for most of her career since her victory over a Republican incumbent in 1984.  In the Tea Party year of 2010, she got 59% over businessman Rich Iott while her neighboring incumbent Betty Sutton received 56% and then her neighbor Dennis Kucinich received 53%.  Kaptur’s district had stretched from her native Toledo to the east through Erie and Lorain Counties, while her new redrawn district includes much of the northern parts of this previous district and then parts of western Cuyahoga County which was Dennis Kucinich’s home turf.  She has some of Betty Sutton’s region although much of Sutton’s district was absorbed by Jim Renacci seat.  Also in Kaptur’s favor, the neighborhoods closer to Lake Erie tend to be more Democratic.

During the primary this March, Kaptur beat Kucinich by about 42K to 30K votes.  Wurzelbacher inched past his opponent 15K to 14K.  So the Republicans are already looking at a 70-30 deficit which is frankly about right given the way this district was drawn.  But of the four Democratic seats (the new Columbus seat, Marcia Fudge, and Tim Ryan), this one is the most high-profile and the one to pick off.

In order to win, Joe the Plumber will need to appeal to Kucinich voters in the Cleveland area.  Despite Kucinich’s runs for President and UFO-watching with Shirley MacLaine, he has maintained a working class front for a number of Cleveland voters.  He was not happy with some of the Kaptur tactics during the primary, and maybe these Democrats can be persuaded to switch sides.  Secondly, there may be Kucinich sympathizers in Lorain County.  These voters would be familiar with both Kaptur and Kucinich, and this county split their votes fairly evenly between these two.

Another essential tactic is to get the voters who do not vote in the primaries but vote in the general, i.e. the independents.  They need to decide if they like Obama and his policies or not, and these voters are in the heart of the Rust Belt.  They see the tragedy that is Detroit and have seen countless manufacturing jobs leave Cleveland, Youngstown, and Pittsburgh over the last few decades.  At some point, a person needs to decide if they will continue on the same voting path or choose to make a change and he will need to pull all of these voters to his side.  Each Democrat incumbent in 2010 lost over 10 points from their 2008 victories, so is there any more blood to squeeze out of this turnip?

I think there is, and this will depend on Romney coattails with both new and disaffected voters.  I can see some voters who split Obama-Wurzelbacher, but maybe a few Romney-Kaptur ones.  But the more Romney can make the Great Lakes area competitive, the better chance Republicans might have with House races.  The more Wurzelbacher can grease the skids with pro-business arguments, the better chance Romney has to take Ohio.  Hopefully by October, Romney will be running ahead in Ohio and even in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Joe will be giving Marcy Kaptur a run for her career.