The Democrats aren’t going to simply play defense this year. Every Republican they can pick off in 2010 will give them the chance to say “See, it was anti-incumbent and not anti-Obama.” And you know, an anti-incumbent election would be a good idea if it weren’t for the gerry-mandering that makes 70-80% of the districts safe for one side or the other. But that’ll be for next year when the census is taken, tabulated, and then the districts redrawn with (if estimates are correct) Ohio having two fewer seats.
Jean Schmidt has never held the southern Ohio River HD 2 with the comfort that the now Senate-candidate Rob Portman had for twelve years. After Portman was appointed U.S. Trade Representative, Schmidt barely beat anti-war Iraqi veteran Paul Hackett in a 2005 race that portended the strength Democrats would have in 2006. She further received national attention after calling out John Murtha and his desire to pull out the troops in Iraq by saying “cowards cut and run, Marines never do.” Schmidt later said that she was not directing the comments at Murtha and apologized, but the the damage was done. Schmidt was primaried in 2006 by a former Congressman, and then beat Victoria Wulsin by single digits. The two women had a rematch in 2008 with Schmidt beating Wulsin by a few more percentage points, but Independent candidate David Krikorian took over 15% of the vote.
In 2010, Krikorian is poised to run for the seat as a Democrat. His 2008 success may have been due in part to him running an “above-the-politics” campaign with endorsements from both sides of the aisle. This race is already on, and not in a good way. Krikorian has said that Schmidt has taken more money from the Turkish lobby and also denies the Armenian genocide. Schmidt subsequently filed a libel suit against Krikorian. We’ll have to keep watching for more news on this front as the story unfolds.
The only other Republican who may be in trouble is Pat Tiberi, who took over the seat in 2001 from the now Governor-candidate John Kasich. Bush barely carried the northern Columbus district in 2004 and Obama took it over in 2008. Tiberi has enjoyed double-digit victories, but that margin has steadily declined. In 2010, Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks appears to be mounting a challenge in this ever-more blue district.