Ohio and the Precarious Blue Wall

Just a quick observation regarding Ohio’s place in the electoral college at this moment in polling time. The RealClearPolitics map without toss-up states gives Obama a 332-206 lead as of July 6.  It gives Romeny the toss-up states of Missouri and North Carolina, but Obama wins the rest.  Well I’ve heard that Florida and Virginia will be drifting towards Romney as the year goes on which is why Obama will be making the Midwest his second home.  Flipping those two states puts the Obama lead at 290-248 which leaves him only 22 electoral votes to spare.

There are many ways for Romney to get to 22, and the easiest way would be to get Ohio (18 votes) plus any other state which at the moment includes New Hampshire (4 votes).  Pennsylvania (20) plus one would get him there also, but Ohio might be an easier get.  The other medium-sized toss-up states include Michigan (16), Wisconsin and Minnesota (10), and Colorado (9).  Nevada and Iowa (6) make up the balance.

John McCain did not win a single Great Lakes state – not even Indiana.  I think Romney can make this whole region competitive despite who he picks as Vice-President although the Midwest money should be on Rob Portman or maybe Paul Ryan, Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels.  This all assumes that Florida and Virginia move to Romney because things will get much more difficult if those two states remain in the blue wall.


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